A Century of Inflation and Economic Uncertainty: Putting the COVID-19 Shock in Context
This paper places COVID or post-pandemic macro volatility and uncertainty episode in long-run historical perspective across advanced economies. Using a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility, the paper examines the evolution of output-growth and inflation volatility during COVID with earlier episodes of macroeconomic instability including wars, interwar upheavals, the Great Inflation, the Global Financial Crisis etc.